Há algum tempo o Brasil tem sido o maior receptor de investimento estrangeiro direto na América Latina devido ao seu tamanho (7ª maior economia e 2ª maior população do hemisfério ocidental), a sua riqueza de recursos naturais e relativa estabilidade política. A maioria dos investimentos no Brasil proporciona aos investidores um retorno atraente. O paíspode apresentar desafios para os investidores, especialmente os que não estão familiarizados com os desafios do “custo brasil” (ou seja, o alto custo para fazer negócios no Brasil) ou seu ambiente de negócios único.
Brazil has been the single largest recipient of foreign direct investment in Latin America for some time due to its size (7th largest economy and 2nd biggest population in the western hemisphere), its wealth of natural resources, and relative political stability. Most investments in Brazil provide investors with an attractive return, but some do not. Brazil can present challenges for investors, especially those not familiar with the challenges of “custo brasil” (i.e., high cost of doing business in Brazil) or its unique business environment.
第3回は、「フリーマネーからオペレーショナル・エクセレンスへ」
世界経済は2023年の多くの予想を上回り、2024年に順調なスタートを切ったようだ。中央銀行は、景気後退を回避しながらインフレを抑制するという、捉えどころのないソフトランディングを成し遂げようとしている。
金利は今年中に低下し始めると見込まれるが、中央銀行はインフレを確実に抑制するために金利を高い水準に維持する決意を示している。市場では高金利の長期化のムードが続いており、昨年の米国金利は10年ぶりの高水準を記録し、10年国債の利回りは16年ぶりに5％の閾値を超え、低格付けクレジットの利回りは2008年の金融危機以来のピークに達した。アリックスパートナーズが毎年発表しているディスラプション・インデックスでは、CEOが2024年に自社のビジネスが直面する最大の脅威として「金利」と「インフレ」を挙げている。
このような事業環境を考えれば、倒産が増加しているのは当然だ。昨年、米国の倒産件数は金融危機以来の水準となった。とはいえ、歴史を振り返ってみると、現在の資本コストは特別に高いわけではないことは認識しておくと良いだろう。いまこそ企業は10年間にわたるフリーマネー時代に萎縮した筋肉を鍛えるタイミングだ。これ以降で３つのポイントを紹介する。
U.K. TURNAROUND AND RESTRUCTURING UPDATE APRIL 2024 OUR OUTLOOK It would be safe to say that 2024 has begun at a ferocious pace for our Turnaround and Restructuring team, reflecting the many challenges and disruptive headwinds that businesses are facing into. Following the recessionary environment witnessed in the second half of 2023, the reported modest return to growth in January has not masked the disruption that we see in the market, irrespective of industry or sub-sector. Our current engagements span from online retail to shipping, financial services, and aerospace.
Several myths and stereotypes surround headcount restructuring projects in Europe. Headcount restructurings must factor in local labor law and co-determination rights, which vary significantly across the continent. As a result, multinational employers often fear the cost and complexity of dealing with restructurings at their European operations and subsidiaries.
Typical drivers of anxiety include:
Following several years of declining recuperações judiciais filings in Brazil, nearly 600 companies requested court protection in the first six months of 2023, a 52% increase over the same period in 2022.
Total filings remain below the number seen between 2016-2018, when Brazil went through one of its worst economic crises. However, there is a clear separation from the lower number of filings during the pandemic years of 2020-2022, when there was an increase in government support and creditors were more patient.
Yesterday’s rate decision – a 25bps increase – was welcomed by markets. Not because the increase will not be painful but because a 50bps increase would have signalled that reversing inflation is far from done.
In December 2021 – just 20 months ago – the Bank rate was 0.1%; yesterday’s increase took that rate to 5.25%. Although the level of interest rates is not high by historical standards, the sharp transition is something we have not witnessed since the late 80s.